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Houses 30 % Fall

#Post
1

Research suggest over 60% of house owners could not afford to buy the house they own at todays prices. Who is going to buy them out as people move into rest homes or die.? It has to be young people ,there is nobody else they will have no competition. To sell a house prices have to come back 30% to be affordable for these young people or do we want to screw them over.

sadmuddle - 2021-09-18 12:23:00
2

that wont happen

spead - 2021-09-18 12:30:00
3

Bet you a chockie fish it's a 30% increase!

pcle - 2021-09-18 14:47:00
4

Seen the price of fish lately?

wasgonna - 2021-09-18 14:50:00
5

its the young people who will benefit from all of this because it will be left to them in their parents wills.

snork28 - 2021-09-18 14:52:00
6

Trouble now is it not just the price of housing here.
The living costs are getting very high.

rodeorunch - 2021-09-18 15:15:00
7

Thousands of first home buyers every month. Maybe they start lower down the ladder as a first step. Maybe help from parents. One way or another they have afforded the first home.

artemis - 2021-09-18 15:52:00
8

Rather than crashing the housing market, they need to effectively devalue the dollar, if house prices stayed stagnant while the cost of everything else, including labour rises sharply, then no one ends up with negative equity but housing affordability improves. The problem isn’t the price so much as the price to income ratio, you can fix that two ways!

rowlf - 2021-09-18 16:31:00
9

What people fail to realise is it isn't the house going up in value - it's the value of your $ going down.
Print another $7B - Houses go up, groceries go up, $ is worth less, etc.

pcle - 2021-09-18 16:38:00
10
sadmuddle wrote:

Research suggest over 60% of house owners could not afford to buy the house they own at todays prices. Who is going to buy them out as people move into rest homes or die.? r.


Well considering my son is 43, he might be a while off dying and in any case the house is in his will to his daughter.

lythande1 - 2021-09-18 17:00:00
11
sadmuddle wrote:

Research suggest over 60% of house owners could not afford to buy the house they own at todays prices. Who is going to buy them out as people move into rest homes or die.? It has to be young people ,there is nobody else they will have no competition. To sell a house prices have to come back 30% to be affordable for these young people or do we want to screw them over.

Loaded statement.
The reason is because they dont have as much life left as they did when they bought it. Simple.
Its young people that buy their first house, not the 50+ crowd.

marte - 2021-09-18 17:55:00
12
pcle wrote:

What people fail to realise is it isn't the house going up in value - it's the value of your $ going down.
Print another $7B - Houses go up, groceries go up, $ is worth less, etc.


This^

sweetgurl108 - 2021-09-18 18:04:00
13

The self entitled need to wake up. The days of 230 square meter McMansion on 800 square meter sections are over in New Zealand. The new normal is a 2 bedroom 70 square meter terraced house like the UK.

https://www.which.co.uk/news/2018/04/shrinking-homes-the-ave
rage-british-house-20-smaller-than-in-1970s/

ian1990 - 2021-09-18 18:18:00
14
pcle wrote:

What people fail to realise is it isn't the house going up in value - it's the value of your $ going down.
Print another $7B - Houses go up, groceries go up, $ is worth less, etc.

Once baby boomers die off houses might stay empty . No body will come here pay a million for a house just pick kiwifruit or apples.

sadmuddle - 2021-09-18 18:22:00
15

I doubt theres an open home in the country thats got zero people going through it. The lockdowns slowed real estate sales, but it wont stop demand. And we don't need it to be "young people" immigrants will do nicely.

bitsnpieces2020 - 2021-09-18 19:21:00
16
ian1990 wrote:

The self entitled need to wake up. The days of 230 square meter McMansion on 800 square meter sections are over in New Zealand. The new normal is a 2 bedroom 70 square meter terraced house like the UK.

https://www.which.co.uk/news/2018/04/shrinking-homes-the-ave
rage-british-house-20-smaller-than-in-1970s/

if you want to be stuck
for another lockdown in a little suicide box go for it.

bitsnpieces2020 - 2021-09-18 19:23:00
17
bitsnpieces2020 wrote:

I doubt theres an open home in the country thats got zero people going through it. The lockdowns slowed real estate sales, but it wont stop demand. And we don't need it to be "young people" immigrants will do nicely.

Ageing populations will stuff your idea .There will be free houses where they are.

sadmuddle - 2021-09-18 19:41:00
18
rowlf wrote:

Rather than crashing the housing market, they need to effectively devalue the dollar, if house prices stayed stagnant while the cost of everything else, including labour rises sharply, then no one ends up with negative equity but housing affordability improves. The problem isn’t the price so much as the price to income ratio, you can fix that two ways!

$25 kg milksolids dairying in other words Dream on

sadmuddle - 2021-09-18 19:58:00
19
sadmuddle wrote:

Ageing populations will stuff your idea .There will be free houses where they are.


Sadly Sadpuddle people like you have been saying this for the last 20 years and it hasn't happened yet.

chito - 2021-09-18 20:02:00
20

Ageing population will find their Super won't provide them with much to live on and some will aim to downsize, thus competing with the FHBer at the lower end of the market.

Be careful what you wish for.

sparkychap - 2021-09-18 20:29:00
21
sparkychap wrote:

Ageing population will find their Super won't provide them with much to live on and some will aim to downsize, thus competing with the FHBer at the lower end of the market.

Be careful what you wish for.


Yes.
It was the goal back when I was a young boomer to buy your family home, live in it happily til you got old and dottery then sell and buy a little house or flat. Us boomers are getting old and dottery now so watch out!!
(Not suggesting you’re dottery though, happymuddle ????)

lovelurking - 2021-09-18 21:03:00
22
chito wrote:


Sadly Sadpuddle people like you have been saying this for the last 20 years and it hasn't happened yet.

The virus will take us old folks out

sadmuddle - 2021-09-18 22:12:00
23
sadmuddle wrote:

The virus will take us old folks out

Never! Not with 2 shots and 3 boosters.

pcle - 2021-09-18 22:14:00
24

Posting in a sad sadmuddle troll thread.

esprit - 2021-09-18 22:21:00
25

T.R.O.L.L. = Trolls rarely offer life lessons. Mostly fake news or a mixup of disparate facts to come to an oddball conclusion about ""the end is nigh"".
Best wishes Sadmuddle.

bizsafe - 2021-09-19 01:49:00
26

The member deleted this message.

bizsafe - 2021-09-19 01:50:00
27

Careful what you wish for there sadmuddle. For the last week or so I have been following the mess in China with Evergrande. That could be the black swan event that brings everyone to their senses.

laurelanne - 2021-09-19 05:54:00
28
laurelanne wrote:

Careful what you wish for there sadmuddle. For the last week or so I have been following the mess in China with Evergrande. That could be the black swan event that brings everyone to their senses.

While I haven't followed Evergrande disaster closely, on the face of it there are some similarities with New Zealand. For example, Ormiston Rise in receivership got the attention because of its size, but how many smaller developments are impacted by current circumstances.

artemis - 2021-09-19 08:04:00
29
sadmuddle wrote:

Ageing populations will stuff your idea .There will be free houses where they are.

When 'households' have 2, 3, 4 children or more and are obviously 'able' to support them - often times with social assistance, why is there all this hatred (yes I will use that word) toward taking responsibility to care for our elders? The 'euphimisim' of an aging population is constantly used but maybe some of these bright eyed 30/40yr olds that are bouncing around at the moment should stop being so WIFIM, self opinionated and self deserving, which they do under the guise of making a 'better' future for everyone.

brouser3 - 2021-09-19 08:42:00
30

Evergrande. The second largest property developer in China, owns 2% of the market, and property development is over 25% of GDP in China. It's let this one go or bail them out and let the mess get bigger.

laurelanne - 2021-09-19 08:45:00
31
pcle wrote:

Never! Not with 2 shots and 3 boosters.

Yeah - because the aged will not live long enough to see the potential undiscovered long term side effects. It took 25 years for the link between spina bifida and the use of agent orange to be officially recognized.

brouser3 - 2021-09-19 08:49:00
32
laurelanne wrote:

Evergrande. The second largest property developer in China, owns 2% of the market, and property development is over 25% of GDP in China. It's let this one go or bail them out and let the mess get bigger.

Suspect you don't get to that size without having some strong connections and support within the Party....

sparkychap - 2021-09-19 08:51:00
33
artemis wrote:

Thousands of first home buyers every month. Maybe they start lower down the ladder as a first step. Maybe help from parents. One way or another they have afforded the first home.

Did whatshername on whatsit say 28%?

O/P needs to do more research?

amasser - 2021-09-19 09:33:00
34
brouser3 wrote:

When 'households' have 2, 3, 4 children or more and are obviously 'able' to support them - often times with social assistance, why is there all this hatred (yes I will use that word) toward taking responsibility to care for our elders? The 'euphimisim' of an aging population is constantly used but maybe some of these bright eyed 30/40yr olds that are bouncing around at the moment should stop being so WIFIM, self opinionated and self deserving, which they do under the guise of making a 'better' future for everyone.

What a load of bullshit. you say people can afford 3 or four children but may need assistance .If that is the case they cant afford 3 or 4 children plus there is a housing shortage.

sadmuddle - 2021-09-19 10:49:00
35

You do realise this so-called "research" was really just a customer survey asking the question:

"If you were to purchase your current property today, at its current valuation (CV), would you be able to afford it?"

Very poorly worded and subjective question, with no validation of the responses.

sparkychap - 2021-09-19 11:31:00
36
sparkychap wrote:

You do realise this so-called "research" was really just a customer survey asking the question:

"If you were to purchase your current property today, at its current valuation (CV), would you be able to afford it?" poorly worded and subjective question, with no validation of the responses.

. yes , but 30 year mortgages are a dead loss putting the owners in the same position as dairy farmers who are cash poor for decades then sell up .Then wait to die. This house price bullshit can be overcome.

sadmuddle - 2021-09-19 13:03:00
37
snork28 wrote:

its the young people who will benefit from all of this because it will be left to them in their parents wills.

Unless the parents sell up to fund their old age in a nice retirement village unit.

oh_hunnihunni - 2021-09-19 13:06:00
38
sadmuddle wrote:

. yes , but 30 year mortgages are a dead loss putting the owners in the same position as dairy farmers who are cash poor for decades then sell up .Then wait to die. This house price bullshit can be overcome.

So you agree that your whole thread is based on a fallacy?

sparkychap - 2021-09-19 13:16:00
39
sparkychap wrote:

So you agree that your whole thread is based on a fallacy?

You got me worried but in japan I read places there the houses stay empty when the owner is dead. Also China the population is expected to drop by 50% 50 years time onwards .It is so severe China as a country cannot function .The only place where there will be spare people will be in Africa If they immigrate to China very soon Africans will be the majority in China This what I was reading I dont think it was a survey!

sadmuddle - 2021-09-19 13:26:00
40
sadmuddle wrote:

What a load of bullshit. you say people can afford 3 or four children but may need assistance .If that is the case they cant afford 3 or 4 children plus there is a housing shortage.

Please go and look at the difference between 'afford' and 'support'. At no point did I use the word 'afford'.

brouser3 - 2021-09-19 15:20:00
41

Developers need to stop buying the smaller cheaper houses because all they do is tear them down and build mansions.

spidermurti - 2021-09-19 17:09:00
42
spidermurti wrote:

Developers need to stop buying the smaller cheaper houses because all they do is tear them down and build mansions.

That's because other developers are buying the bigger, more expensive houses and all they do is tear the down and build apartments or high density housing.

brouser3 - 2021-09-19 20:51:00
43
sadmuddle wrote:

Ageing populations will stuff your idea .There will be free houses where they are.

its laughable when considering the immigration factor. immigrants usually are under 30. And are usually starting families here, or bringing their kids.

bitsnpieces2020 - 2021-09-19 21:41:00
44
laurelanne wrote:

Careful what you wish for there sadmuddle. For the last week or so I have been following the mess in China with Evergrande. That could be the black swan event that brings everyone to their senses.

bingo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTVxMyGBW48

lakeview3 - 2021-09-19 21:59:00
45

The timeline will tie in nicely with global sea rises and the loss of coastal property all over NZ.

bitsnpieces2020 - 2021-09-20 09:23:00
46

This message was deleted.

gunna-1 - 2021-09-21 05:40:00
47

Its worse then I thought .There could be 80 million empty houses in China.Also they might quit houses they own in NZ and Australia to get some money.Then we end up with empty houses

sadmuddle - 2021-09-21 09:03:00
48
sadmuddle wrote:

Its worse then I thought .There could be 80 million empty houses in China.Also they might quit houses they own in NZ and Australia to get some money.Then we end up with empty houses

So if they sell up here, who buys them and then not lives in them?

sparkychap - 2021-09-21 09:05:00
49
sadmuddle wrote:

Research suggest over 60% of house owners could not afford to buy the house they own at todays prices. Who is going to buy them out as people move into rest homes or die.? It has to be young people ,there is nobody else they will have no competition. To sell a house prices have to come back 30% to be affordable for these young people or do we want to screw them over.


Someone brought my house for 12000 in 1981 and someone paid 250k in 2020 and someone will pay 500k or more in the future when I'm dead and gone.

leson - 2021-09-21 11:04:00
50
leson wrote:


Someone brought my house for 12000 in 1981 and someone paid 250k in 2020 and someone will pay 500k or more in the future when I'm dead and gone.

Well my farm lost 2million in value during the last few years. For a while farm prices were off the planet.62 % of dairy farm run at a loss maybe due to those prices .Houses will come down because the shit will hit the fan.If the Chinese want their money out $900 000 house with a 30 year mortgage will drop to $600 000

sadmuddle - 2021-09-21 16:10:00
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