Did the Finance Minister write to RBNZ ?
In Stuff
"Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says targeted government policy could do much more for the property market than monetary policy can."

aklreels - 2020-11-25 18:03:00

It’s a bit rough on RBNZ - successive governments have done nothing to reduce housing affordability issues, and RBNZ cops the blame.

sparkychap - 2020-11-25 18:09:00

Build prefabs .build your own house help house price crash arrive.

Edited by sadmuddle at 10:44 pm, Wed 25 Nov

sadmuddle - 2020-11-25 22:44:00

Government and councils should just get out of the way and stop trying to control the market.

masturbidder - 2020-11-25 22:53:00

Can the government start a new ministry, maybe the "Ministry of Works" and employ their own builders etc. and start building a lot of houses with no profit margin?

tygertung - 2020-11-26 06:59:00

sparkychap wrote:

It’s a bit rough on RBNZ - successive governments have done nothing to reduce housing affordability issues, and RBNZ cops the blame.

Successive Governments have been the cause of skyrocketing costs and rents. But let's just blame landlords - that's good for at least 2-3 terms.

pcle - 2020-11-26 07:50:00

tygertung wrote:

Can the government start a new ministry, maybe the "Ministry of Works" and employ their own builders etc. and start building a lot of houses with no profit margin?

Anything the Government can do for $100 the private sector can do for $1.

pcle - 2020-11-26 07:51:00

tygertung wrote:

Can the government start a new ministry, maybe the "Ministry of Works" and employ their own builders etc. and start building a lot of houses with no profit margin?

Stealing capacity from private construction won't help, especially when government cannot do anything more efficiently than private business. That will end up with less houses built overall.

All government has to do is set up an environment (i.e. regulations, incentives etc) which encourages business to build what they want for them.

loose.unit8 - 2020-11-26 07:57:00

It wouldn't be stealing capacity from the private sector, as the private sector would still be doing their own work. The government could hire builders (not building companies) and train heaps of apprentices.

People looking for work on the dole could be offered apprenticeships in building, plumbing, electrical etc.

With regard to setting up an environment (i.e. regulations, incentives etc) which encourages business to build, well they tried that in the 90s, but it lead to issues with the quality of the houses being built.

tygertung - 2020-11-26 09:40:00

tygertung wrote:

It wouldn't be stealing capacity from the private sector, as the private sector would still be doing their own work. The government could hire builders (not building companies) and train heaps of apprentices.

People looking for work on the dole could be offered apprenticeships in building, plumbing, electrical etc.

With regard to setting up an environment (i.e. regulations, incentives etc) which encourages business to build, well they tried that in the 90s, but it lead to issues with the quality of the houses being built.

How about such a scheme where these people on the dole are actually doing these apprenticeships building their own houses. Multiply so on a government supplied block of land but learning all the trades as they go. When they are finished perhaps a cheap loan covering costs to go forward with and them living in their new home.

bryalea - 2020-11-26 10:28:00

sadmuddle wrote:

Build prefabs .build your own house help house price crash arrive.

Lots of state and railway houses still standing.

amasser - 2020-11-26 10:44:00

tygertung wrote:

It wouldn't be stealing capacity from the private sector, as the private sector would still be doing their own work. The government could hire builders (not building companies) and train heaps of apprentices.

People looking for work on the dole could be offered apprenticeships in building, plumbing, electrical etc.

With regard to setting up an environment (i.e. regulations, incentives etc) which encourages business to build, well they tried that in the 90s, but it lead to issues with the quality of the houses being built.

So you think there are heaps of unemployed tradies (and materials) and designers and architects etc etc just sitting around waiting for this government work? The government would need to steal all of them away from private business (this is one of the many, many issues with kiwibuild). Apprentices can't build houses on their own.

What you're talking about would take 15+ years to set up before it was in a position where it wasn't stealing capacity off private business and even then it wouldn't be able to do it any better than private business could.

Edited by loose.unit8 at 11:14 am, Thu 26 Nov

loose.unit8 - 2020-11-26 11:12:00

loose.unit8 wrote:

So you think there are heaps of unemployed tradies (and materials) and designers and architects etc etc just sitting around waiting for this government work? The government would need to steal all of them away from private business (this is one of the many, many issues with kiwibuild). Apprentices can't build houses on their own.

What you're talking about would take 15+ years to set up before it was in a position where it wasn't stealing capacity off private business and even then it wouldn't be able to do it any better than private business could.

Well maybe it should have been set up 15+ years ago, but why not start now? At least then in 15 years the scheme will be all going full power.

Then also the scheme doesn't need to make a profit, like the private enterprise does. The scheme could build lots of state houses for example, or houses for first time home buyers who can't even afford to buy a run down ancient house now.

Edited by tygertung at 12:13 pm, Thu 26 Nov

tygertung - 2020-11-26 12:11:00

bryalea wrote:

How about such a scheme where these people on the dole are actually doing these apprenticeships building their own houses. Multiply so on a government supplied block of land but learning all the trades as they go. When they are finished perhaps a cheap loan covering costs to go forward with and them living in their new home.

Sounds good to me. Most people on the dole actually want to work, there is a small minority who don't, but you can't get away from that.

tygertung - 2020-11-26 12:14:00

tygertung wrote:

Well maybe it should have been set up 15+ years ago, but why not start now? At least then in 15 years the scheme will be all going full power.

Then also the scheme doesn't need to make a profit, like the private enterprise does. The scheme could build lots of state houses for example, or houses for first time home buyers who can't even afford to buy a run down ancient house now.

Why not start now?

Because the government wouldn't be able to do it any better than private business could and setting up regulations and incentives (etc) to encourage private business to do it, essentially costs the taxpayer nothing.

loose.unit8 - 2020-11-26 12:35:00

J Collins, on TV, oh NZ housing
Councils and freeing land for development
Money available to our economy is falling on existing property, not new builds
A shallow treatment, ought to be targeted on productive sectors.
Low interest rates and a housing bubble that no one wants to talk about, lest it bursts...

How would she address this
Deal with the drivers.....foreign sounding names of buyers....disincentives for councils to free up land.. stop lending...streamline approvals for loans,...RBNZ to encourage giving loans to productive sectors.

aklreels - 2020-11-26 12:46:00

Only two things will work.
1, free up some land
2, lift interest rates
Neither will happen so status quo it will be until it bursts like a boil.

3tomany - 2020-11-26 12:55:00

3tomany wrote:

Only two things will work.
1, free up some land
2, lift interest rates
Neither will happen so status quo it will be until it bursts like a boil.

#2 would help immediately

Plenty of other things will also help

Increase allowable density in city plans.
Keep migration at the current historic low.
Increase LVRs.
Reform RMA.
Review council costs.
Review into the duopoly of building materials.

loose.unit8 - 2020-11-26 13:14:00

loose.unit8 wrote:

Why not start now?

Because the government wouldn't be able to do it any better than private business could and setting up regulations and incentives (etc) to encourage private business to do it, essentially costs the taxpayer nothing.

They did that back in the 90s, went real bad. Now there is a problem with a large number of houses.

tygertung - 2020-11-26 15:55:00

What if the government removes the requirement to get a resource consent and building permit, and remove the restrictions on who can carry out building works?

That might get more houses built more quickly.

tygertung - 2020-11-26 16:35:00

tygertung wrote:

What if the government removes the requirement to get a resource consent and building permit, and remove the restrictions on who can carry out building works?

That might get more houses built more quickly.

yeah and they’ll be shit and fall apart in 10 years time (just after any implied warranty has expired)

sparkychap - 2020-11-26 16:37:00

sparkychap wrote:

yeah and they’ll be shit and fall apart in 10 years time (just after any implied warranty has expired)

If houses are factory precut with good materials and are all exactly the same they will last forever.

sadmuddle - 2020-11-26 16:47:00

tygertung wrote:

They did that back in the 90s, went real bad. Now there is a problem with a large number of houses.

So change different regulations

loose.unit8 - 2020-11-26 16:57:00

sadmuddle wrote:

If houses are factory precut with good materials and are all exactly the same they will last forever.

Or they will all have the same faults

loose.unit8 - 2020-11-26 16:57:00

These building standards are PC gone mad. If the government were to remove all building standards, more houses may be built in a quicker time.

tygertung - 2020-11-26 17:10:00

loose.unit8 wrote:

Or they will all have the same faults

Prefabs built in the UK during the war or after are still around .Builders here from the UK say nothing can happen to them unless scrapped . Not much can go wrong with a 2.5 bedroom house.It seems to me do this or move to Australia.

sadmuddle - 2020-11-26 17:24:00

I know its probably controversial but trailer park type communities. Done right doesnt need to be trashy. In the uk a lot of elderly have moved into these freeing up houses. Could be set up relatively quickly.

tigerbaytrading - 2020-11-26 17:38:00

There will be a price correction at the end of March if enough people on the mortgage holiday are not able to resume payments.

cassina1 - 2020-11-26 17:38:00

tigerbaytrading wrote:

I know its probably controversial but trailer park type communities. Done right doesnt need to be trashy. In the uk a lot of elderly have moved into these freeing up houses. Could be set up relatively quickly.

I agree that or 3D printed houses. This govt does not have the ability to think outside the square though.

cassina1 - 2020-11-26 17:40:00

What we need is more rectangular houses. If we could have rectangular houses with a simple roof, they would be quick, easy and cheap to build.

tygertung - 2020-11-26 17:53:00

cassina1 wrote:

There will be a price correction at the end of March if enough people on the mortgage holiday are not able to resume payments.

You'll be devastated to know that the vast majority of those on payment deferral scheme have now returned to normal payments and won't be facing financial ruin.

sparkychap - 2020-11-26 18:15:00

bryalea wrote:

How about such a scheme where these people on the dole are actually doing these apprenticeships building their own houses. Multiply so on a government supplied block of land but learning all the trades as they go. When they are finished perhaps a cheap loan covering costs to go forward with and them living in their new home.

Sounds like a good idea - some of them will then have to 'up their game' to produce a piece of work up to spec and not only learn a trade, but know if they don't do the work properly, sooner or later it will come back to kick them in the a..... not some innocent punter who has paid them good money to do something.

brouser3 - 2020-11-26 22:03:00

cassina1 wrote:

There will be a price correction at the end of March if enough people on the mortgage holiday are not able to resume payments.

It's not a holiday. Just a deferral. All that interest has just been compounded onto the bill. Banks aren't into losing money.

pcle - 2020-11-27 07:43:00

This is the sort of thing we need more of:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/105580647/prefab-company-ma
trix-homes-in-receivership
But local government need to sort themselves out and support this sort of thing instead of foot dragging.

apollo11 - 2020-11-27 07:58:00

tygertung wrote:

What we need is more rectangular houses. If we could have rectangular houses with a simple roof, they would be quick, easy and cheap to build.

Lots of new builds going on with high price tags that are either a basic 'lean to' or a number of basic gable shaped structures joined together with an outdoor enclosed corridor or beeezeway. Next to a tent, what can be more simple than that.

brouser3 - 2020-11-27 08:05:00

sparkychap wrote:

You'll be devastated to know that the vast majority of those on payment deferral scheme have now returned to normal payments and won't be facing financial ruin.

Which of course is good news!

gilligee - 2020-11-27 08:54:00

gilligee wrote:

Which of course is good news!

Any normal person would think so...

sparkychap - 2020-11-27 09:19:00

I'm all for big estates of cookie cutter / basic houses, made to a formula and a price... but of course I would not want this estate in the same street / suburb as my house.. I'm banking on the area I live in to remain "exclusive", so the resale values will remain high, so when I come to sell up, I will have some money in the bank for my retirement, because my entire "retirement plan" is based on getting The Super and capital gain on my house !!!
Signed Mr Nimby

onl_148 - 2020-11-27 11:49:00

sparkychap wrote:

yeah and they’ll be shit and fall apart in 10 years time (just after any implied warranty has expired)

No different to now lol. Councils are the first ones to dodge liability when work/materials they have approved don't go the distance.

franc123 - 2020-11-28 00:32:00

You were able to design and build your own house using the 'Simple House Acceptable Solution', which specified low risk design elements such as wide eaves, lightweight roofing materials, limited choices of cladding etc. But I see that it has been revoked due to lack of interest.
And then I take a wander over the fence to inspect the monolith the neighbour is building and it is just incredibly over-engineered. Massive LVL beams everywhere, Steel rsj, everything strapped and bracketed, footings a meter deep and two meters wide. No wonder it's taking so long to build.

apollo11 - 2020-11-28 01:06:00

Extract from Stuff
"Then the Reserve Bank published fresh figures showing rental property investors using bank loans worth more than 70 per cent of the value of the homes they were buying doubled their share of house buying to 18 per cent in the five months between the easing of LVR restrictions in May and the end of October."

Hah...see who are buying.

aklreels - 2020-11-29 11:22:00

aklreels wrote:

Extract from Stuff
"Then the Reserve Bank published fresh figures showing rental property investors using bank loans worth more than 70 per cent of the value of the homes they were buying doubled their share of house buying to 18 per cent in the five months between the easing of LVR restrictions in May and the end of October."
Hah...see who are buying.

so 82% of buyers aren't investors. It's those crazy first home buyers pushing prices up yet again!

pcle - 2020-11-29 11:39:00

pcle wrote:

so 82% of buyers aren't investors. It's those crazy first home buyers pushing prices up yet again!

thats not what the RBNZ said, if you read it carefully.

sparkychap - 2020-11-29 12:04:00

Cheaper to move a relocatable house (160 sqm) like we did this year. Although we did already had the land which we have got 18 months left to pay on that has no covenancies. Water at the gate we had put in a septic tank, install power, rewire the house and install a wood burner. All up the house to get it compliant approx $160k. The inside still needes decorating to do over time. I know land isnt cheap but there no way we were going to let a building company make $200k at least out of us. We both drive from Featherston over Rimutakas hill (40 mins) to work. And we were still able to keep our 2 bedroom house in Upper Hutt brought back in 1989 and bring up 4 kids We are both in our early 50s. The house is Featherston is freehold on 6400 sqm.

Edited by swinn123 at 2:20 pm, Sun 29 Nov

swinn123 - 2020-11-29 14:19:00

sparkychap wrote:

You'll be devastated to know that the vast majority of those on payment deferral scheme have now returned to normal payments and won't be facing financial ruin.

I think its too early to call that when there could be many more lockdowns before the end of March turfing many more out of jobs. In a media release about a week ago the ASB bank put out a statement that gave the impression they did have some concern about what may happen at the end of March and I think they would know far more about the situation than you unless you work for them in their mortgage repayment division.

cassina1 - 2020-11-29 23:03:00

pcle wrote:

It's not a holiday. Just a deferral. All that interest has just been compounded onto the bill. Banks aren't into losing money.

Holiday was the name given to it in media releases.

cassina1 - 2020-11-29 23:06:00

cassina1 wrote:

I think its too early to call that when there could be many more lockdowns before the end of March turfing many more out of jobs. In a media release about a week ago the ASB bank put out a statement that gave the impression they did have some concern about what may happen at the end of March and I think they would know far more about the situation than you unless you work for them in their mortgage repayment division.

Presumably you mean this press release where they pledge to help affected home owners:

“We know that the coming months are going to be challenging for some and that there are tough conversations still ahead of us. However, our commitment is to work with every customer to keep them in their home,"

Sure, there will be some pain for some home owners but:

1: most people are back on track with normal payments
2: an increased number of sales won't necessarily cause a price drop, banks only have certain capacity for disposal so tend to drip feed onto the market
3: mortgagee sales are at a record low
4: record low interest rates means there are still lots of buyers competing for any properties that do hit the market.

Sure there's always risk to this, and a significant national lockdown could impact this, but I'm looking at a range of data and the outlook is optimistic.

sparkychap - 2020-11-30 08:15:00

This message was deleted.

gunna-1 - 2020-11-30 08:40:00

gunna-1 wrote:

I think a tax on multiple rental properties and empty homes is the way to go, some people might have a dozsen empty homes for all we know, make an exemption for one rental property per person, and an exemption for an empty home for being renovated, or has some other significance apart from being an ordinary home, i cant see who that would hurt, apart from people who are causeing the problems.

The census reports on vacant dwellings (at census time) and there are a lot. Stats gives some detail as to probably why.

How many are left to be taxed after these are removed - baches, holiday locations, occupiers away, under reno, waiting for tenants / new owners / demolition, unable to be rented out as they don't meet the new standards, no decent tenants available, no demand for rentals ....

I reckon 7 or 8.

artemis - 2020-11-30 08:55:00

gunna-1 wrote:

I think a tax on multiple rental properties and empty homes is the way to go, some people might have a dozsen empty homes for all we know, make an exemption for one rental property per person, and an exemption for an empty home for being renovated, or has some other significance apart from being an ordinary home, i cant see who that would hurt, apart from people who are causeing the problems.

Sounds good to me.

tygertung - 2020-11-30 13:30:00