property crash , is it going to happen ?
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| 1 | Just wondering if anyone has any strong opinions as to the future of the real estate market . my opinion is the obvious "its unsustainable" ...but this has to be tempered with the amount of people moving to NZ Edited by bergkamp at 11:23 am, Sun 22 Nov bergkamp - 2020-11-22 11:22:00 |
| 2 | Great time to sell! pcle - 2020-11-22 11:33:00 |
| 3 | plenty of money pouring in from overseas and plenty buying whatever they can while they still can before they get left out. i expect things to cool down a bit soon. tweake - 2020-11-22 12:01:00 |
| 4 | If it continues the same as the last 35yrs as it has at a 8% PA. A $1M home today would be $15M in next 35yrs .... Haha. rayonline_tm - 2020-11-22 12:24:00 |
| 5 | It will drop at some stage before it rises again. Its got a way to drop to get below the rise since covid. It has got to stop rising sometime it might drop after that. ash4561 - 2020-11-22 13:11:00 |
| 6 | ash4561 is sort of on to it, they will rise slightly more, then by june next year they will flatten off, then december drop a little then flatten off, there is not going to be a big crash. things will be stable for a number of years then they will rise again as immigration rises. It's all got to do with the population on the day, alway has alway will be. The problem is not with housing, it is wages are too low in New Zealand. History repeats itself, this is the capitalist system. I'm happy with things as they are. Each to their own. msigg - 2020-11-22 13:28:00 |
| 7 | It will depend on what the property is, where it is. If the property is a suitable type in a desirable location and there are multiple interested parties then the property is likely to keep going up up regardless of recession etc. If the property is in a backwater with low employment opportunities then the property could sit for a while. So likely see property going up in some places and flat or going down in other places (maybe to the point where the properties become non-traditional weekend retreat or city escape/ lockdown places) Let enough wealthy overseas overseas people (post-covid) in could see NZers highly displaced from buying all but the very low end properties. Examples from River Road - https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/sale/waikat serf407 - 2020-11-22 14:29:00 |
| 8 | It will continue until we build sufficient houses. masturbidder - 2020-11-22 14:36:00 |
| 9 | masturbidder wrote:
Christchurch proved this. Huge building work went on post quake and prices had been mostly flat up until this year. A house on my street sold for $555,000 back in 2013. It sold again last year for $600k. Take away agents fees, rates, insurance and maintenance let alone mortgage interest they went backwards. sw20 - 2020-11-22 15:13:00 |
| 10 | People will buy cos of the low mortgage rates, rates will increase sooner or later, then the mortgagee sales will start catwoman1974 - 2020-11-22 19:53:00 |
| 11 | Soz but rates wont increase in our lifetime. Bear in mind that they cant go down that much either so we are now in a stasis funkydunky - 2020-11-22 20:00:00 |
| 12 | funkydunky wrote: bergkamp - 2020-11-22 20:04:00 |
| 13 | Care to make a wager? funkydunky - 2020-11-22 20:05:00 |
| 14 | I think the government will be forced to intervene in the next 3 months and there will be a correction sometime mid to late next year. That's if the covid recession doesn't kick in and save them from acting. Either way I think there will be some sort of correction. Especially since migration is now at a historic low Edited by loose.unit8 at 9:20 pm, Sun 22 Nov loose.unit8 - 2020-11-22 21:15:00 |
| 15 | bergkamp wrote: funkydunky is 98. sparkychap - 2020-11-22 21:18:00 |
| 16 | funkydunky wrote:
Yep, I'm in for the easy money. smallwoods - 2020-11-22 21:45:00 |
| 17 | sparkychap wrote:
Doesn't matter, the quote was "our lifetime" smallwoods - 2020-11-22 21:46:00 |
| 18 | smallwoods wrote: berkamp’s 103... sparkychap - 2020-11-22 21:55:00 |
| 19 | sparkychap wrote:
well ,i feel and look 103 bergkamp - 2020-11-22 22:36:00 |
| 20 | bergkamp wrote: think we all do after this year.... sparkychap - 2020-11-22 22:42:00 |
| 21 | Wuhan flu is sooooo dangerous it couldn't even dent the NZ property market. pcle - 2020-11-23 07:44:00 |
| 22 | sparkychap wrote:
Yeah, and I'm 21!!!!!! smallwoods - 2020-11-23 08:18:00 |
| 23 | loose.unit8 wrote:
There may be a correction with the number of houses coming on the market at the end of the mortgage holiday if their owners are unable to resume full repayments. The number of houses could be up to 100,000 but that was about 3 months ago and the number of houses could be half that now. While many commentators on FB and this discussion forum dont think there will be any drop in prices the ASB has reported in the media they are not feeling the same way or worlds to that effect. Edited by cassina1 at 8:36 pm, Mon 23 Nov cassina1 - 2020-11-23 20:35:00 |
| 24 | cassina1 wrote:
According to the Reserve Bank, Mortgage Deferrals have already dropped from $22 billion to $4 billion, so there is unlikely to be a flood of properties coming onto the market. https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c65-bank-customer-lendin ian1990 - 2020-11-23 22:48:00 |
| 25 | From the NZ Herald Economists have pointed to both these forms of stimulus as the main reasons house prices have been soaring, while the rest of the economy is in recession." It appears that the Government has to do something to limit (or stop) house prices from soaring. And enlisted the help of the Central Bank. aklreels - 2020-11-25 00:53:00 |
| 26 | "The Venezuelan government expanded its control over tenant-landlords. As a result, it became nearly impossible for landlords to evict tenants and repossess their properties. This made landlords reluctant to rent out their properties at all and led to the rental market shrinking from 30 percent of the country’s housing options in 2004 to only 1 percent of housing in 2014. A similar story is happening right now in Berlin, Germany, where years of rent control and regulation have raised rents and driven housing investors out of the city. When the rights of tenants are prioritized to the point that it makes it too risky and unprofitable for landlords to rent out their properties at all, then landlords often move on to other markets." https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-11-24/heres-how-biden-ha From the article above history shows the market for rentals at least will not be dropping anytime soon, and as long as that is the case I can't see prices dropping either. Forsyth Barr report on housing that recently came out doesn't see a drop soon either. I believe the US election and any subsequent upset will be driving Americans out this way too when they are able to travel. Edited by sweetgurl108 at 7:30 am, Wed 25 Nov sweetgurl108 - 2020-11-25 07:26:00 |
| 27 | If you think housing is going to crash, just look at how much money the government is putting into emergency housing. For what they are currently paying for a motel room for 6 months, they could reasonably house someone in a rental at market rate for a couple of years. On this basis alone you can see that no crash will occur. sweetgurl108 - 2020-11-25 07:44:00 |
| 28 | I guess the thing is... who really knows? We have all these experts (Economists, analysts, etc) making all sort of predictions as to when they believe this long in the tooth Property bull market is going to end, but many of them have been wrong. Admittedly, the RBNZ's so called money printing finally got to me, I bit the bullet, entered the dark side and bought a rental. I feel I had to act in some way to safe guard against any further erosion of my savings / nest egg in the face of a continued volley of attacks against us savers by the powers to be. A week after I placed an offer which was accepted. The agent starting texting to warn I would not be able to get any extensions to any conditions... "There is big interest in the property with buyers willing to pay more". Upon flying down to conduct final pre-settlement formalities + inspection, the agent was going on about how the vendor "felt he let the property go too cheap" (but that is just the Agent's word, who knows how true this is...) Edited by cognition at 8:47 am, Wed 25 Nov cognition - 2020-11-25 08:37:00 |
| 29 | msigg wrote:
And you base this prediction on what, exactly? kathryn159 - 2020-11-26 20:54:00 |
