geoone wrote:

... employed by the public service (good bye any pay increments!) ...

Oh but apparently there's not a pay freeze, because we'll still be able to move up within salary bands, it's just that the value of the bands won't increase. Or something

luteba - 2021-05-11 13:42:00

Is there a risk from refinancing if values dropped?

A person with a 1 year mortgage of 80% of a $1mil home. If the market value of the house dropped to $900k (round numbers to make calculations easier) then a bank would only lend then 80% of the value, being $720k. That's an $80k shortfall to find, possibly as an unsecured loan?

soundsgood - 2021-05-11 13:58:00

soundsgood wrote:

Is there a risk from refinancing if values dropped?

A person with a 1 year mortgage of 80% of a $1mil home. If the market value of the house dropped to $900k (round numbers to make calculations easier) then a bank would only lend then 80% of the value, being $720k. That's an $80k shortfall to find, possibly as an unsecured loan?

LVR restrictions only affect new or amended loans, so as long as your person doesn't try and refinance, the original $1m "value" still counts.

sparkychap - 2021-05-11 14:29:00

luteba wrote:

Oh but apparently there's not a pay freeze, because we'll still be able to move up within salary bands, it's just that the value of the bands won't increase. Or something

A few nurses rang talkback and they are on the top band which isn't high so they won't get any pay increases. The younger ones were talking about going overseas, the ones nearing retirement were worried about their futures especially renting in Auckland. Nurses have seven steps to get to the top of their range, teachers have 13 they said so it will be hard for some.

kacy5 - 2021-05-11 17:56:00

apollo11 wrote:

I would think that the banks are terrified of crashing the housing market, and would hold off selling houses from under people (with negative equity) as a very last resort.

I thought the whole UN Agenda plan was for the banks to take over and own all the property so it could then be passed to the New World Order Global Government.

sparkychap - 2021-05-12 07:12:00

sparkychap wrote:

I thought the whole UN Agenda plan was for the banks to take over and own all the property so it could then be passed to the New World Order Global Government.

Is it a UN agenda? I know the World Economic Forum arseholes and a lot of the Davos crowd are pushing 'The Great Reset', but the whole 'you will own nothing' campaign feels like it has been rushed before it was ready. Google 'Build Back Better' for a laugh, it's everywhere.

apollo11 - 2021-05-12 08:14:00

sparkychap wrote:

No this isn't right. Price falls makes no difference to "liquidity" as long as the borrower can still afford the mortgage payments. With the 20% LVRs and double digit annual price rises we've seen, very few FHBer will be plunged into negative equity, and even if they are, as long as they can still pay the mortgage, the banks will continue to let them.

Rising interest rates are far more of a concern although banks have been stress testing to 7% in recent years, and its estimated that we're many, many years away from getting back to those levels.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/homeandproperty/mortgages-in
-hardship-rose-10-in-april-centrix/ar-BB1gAxfG?li=AAFzsuA&am
p;ocid=UP97DHP

It's starting already!

smallwoods - 2021-05-12 08:31:00

smallwoods wrote:

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/homeandproperty/mortgages-in
-hardship-rose-10-in-april-centrix/ar-BB1gAxfG?li=AAFzsuA&am
p;ocid=UP97DHP

It's starting already!

That's not to do with negative equity though, that's not being able to pay the installments.

loose.unit8 - 2021-05-12 08:41:00

smallwoods wrote:

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/homeandproperty/mortgages-in
-hardship-rose-10-in-april-centrix/ar-BB1gAxfG?li=AAFzsuA&am
p;ocid=UP97DHP

It's starting already!

And is that caused by falling house prices or rising interest rates?

sparkychap - 2021-05-12 08:45:00

If you read the article you would see that a rise and defaults was always expected with the end of the mortgage deferral scheme. And asYour article also comments the number of defaults is less than feared.

Edited by sparkychap at 9:00 am, Wed 12 May

sparkychap - 2021-05-12 08:52:00

apollo11 wrote:

Is it a UN agenda? I know the World Economic Forum arseholes and a lot of the Davos crowd are pushing 'The Great Reset', but the whole 'you will own nothing' campaign feels like it has been rushed before it was ready. Google 'Build Back Better' for a laugh, it's everywhere.

Yeah hard to keep up with the conspiracy theories, after all last week it was the lizard people and George Soros injecting Bill Gates designed nanochips which Jeremy Epstein will use to turn you all into baby eating liberals.

sparkychap - 2021-05-12 09:36:00

sparkychap wrote:

Yeah hard to keep up with the conspiracy theories, after all last week it was the lizard people and George Soros injecting Bill Gates designed nanochips which Jeremy Epstein will use to turn you all into baby eating liberals.

Forgive me, as I get older I get more paranoid. I wouldn't give a shit if it were just me, because I'll be dead before the world becomes a totalitarian socialist utopia. But I do worry what sort of world my daughter will inherit./ conspiratorial rant finished.

apollo11 - 2021-05-12 10:18:00

apollo11 wrote:

Forgive me, as I get older I get more paranoid. I wouldn't give a shit if it were just me, because I'll be dead before the world becomes a totalitarian socialist utopia. But I do worry what sort of world my daughter will inherit./ conspiratorial rant finished.

Hope for the best, plan for the worst. Might not be able to control the macro level but plenty we can do to protect our households.

artemis - 2021-05-12 10:54:00

New Zealand Herald
NZ house prices up 19.1% annually to hit $680,000, Auckland up 21.6% to $1.1mNew house price records have been set, with national prices up 19.1 per cent in the year to April and Auckland outstripping that, rising 21.6 per cent.

Real Estate Institute data out today showed the national median house price last April of $680,000 jumped to$810,000 in the year to April 2021.

Wendy Alexander, REINZ acting chief executive said the ongoing lack of supply continues to push up prices.
"We have seen some regions start to show signs of prices easing ..
"However, we were still surprised by the strength of some of the rises in places

Auckland had the highest percentage of auctions in New Zealand with 48 per cent or 1246 properties sold under the hammer, the highest percentage of auctions for an April month since records began.

And yet, the number of properties sold in the Barfoot and Thompson online auctions, in Auckland on 11/5/21, is as shown below.

Highbrook Room 1, 10 am , 10 out of 16
Highbrook Room 2, 10 am , 5 out of 20
Central, 12 pm , 7 out of 13
Highbrook Room 1, 1 pm , 11 out of 15
Highbrook Room 2, 1 pm , 3 out of 14

12/5/21
Central 10 am, 9 out of 15
Whangarei 1 pm, 1 out of 3
Central 1:30 pm, 9 outt of 16
Pukekohe 4 pm, 8 out of 13

Edited by aklreels at 10:27 am, Thu 13 May

aklreels - 2021-05-13 10:12:00

No worries. Just add more taxes. That'll fix it.

pcle - 2021-05-13 12:37:00

Bank economist

Others felt REINZ's concerns were overstated. Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said the market seemed “perky” and did not offer much evidence yet of a cooling market.

And ASB senior economist Jane Turner said it would have been surprising “not to see some deceleration” in the market.

‘Still, we reiterate our view that a hard landing for the housing market is unlikely.

Kiwibank senior economist Jeremy Couchman said the latest data provided “limited evidence” that the policy changes were taking the heat out of the market so far, but he was expecting prices to cool from the second half of the year.

Looks like bankers don't want to see prices falling.

Interest.co.nz

The national median dwelling price declined by 1.8% in April but price movements were mixed around the country

A cooling breeze blew across the housing market in April, with sales well down compared to March and the national median price also easing.

The latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand shows that 7218 residential properties throughout the country were sold in April, down 28% compared to March.
The decline in sales was evident in almost all parts of the country, with Marlborough the only region where sales increased in April compared to March (+10.7%).

All other regions posted double digit declines ranging from -11.8% in Taranaki to -41% on the West Coast.

In the main urban districts, sales were down -34.7% in Auckland, -18.2% in the Wellington Region, -23.6% Canterbury and -33.9% in Otago (see the sales chart below for the full regional sales trends).

Prices also eased overall, with April's national median selling price of $810,000 down by 1.8% compared to March.

Same data, yet NZ Herald gives a different version.

aklreels - 2021-05-14 10:51:00

Six-month wait for supplies and becoming worse, builders say
House building costs have spiked as capacity constraints and supply shortages start to bite

Temporary shipping delays caused by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic - leading to shortages of products across New Zealand industries - are likely to continue until the end of the year, experts say.

Supply chain issues are affecting pet food supplies, the automotive repair and hardware industries, vehicle imports and building supplies.

aklreels - 2021-05-15 09:55:00

Immigration news
Migration dries up: Record drop in numbers moving to NZ
Government wants to turn down tap on temporary and skilled migrant workers
Immigration: Hundreds of wealthy investors to arrive in NZ under new border exemption

Rentals
Porirua becomes New Zealand's most expensive district to rent
The latest Trade Me Property data released last week showed median rents nationwide had grown by six per cent compared to last year, to $540 a week.
Hawke's Bay rent increases are now the highest in NZ. Here's the impact that's having

New Builds
Auckland man facing $315,000 bill after house built in wrong place
Housing: Cut-price mortgages - ASB Bank offers 1.79% for new build home loans

aklreels - 2021-05-18 09:40:00

Extract from the internet.

Leilani Farha, the UN’s former Special Rapporteur on adequate housing, visited New Zealand in February last year for a series of meetings with officials, civil society representatives and residents.

In her final report for the UN Human Rights Council, Farha said the country’s housing crisis was “a human rights crisis that must be addressed urgently”, with high rates of homelessness, escalating rents, and substandard living conditions just some of the problems.

“Such conditions would not have reached such a point had housing been fully understood, recognised and implemented by national and local governments as a human right and a social good rather than as an asset for wealth accumulation and growth over the last decades.”

While a high number of all new builds in the 1960s and 1970s had been affordable for low-income families, by 2014 more than half of all new housing was aimed towards the upper market.

“In sum, in recent years, housing for the rich was built in abundance, but insufficient housing was constructed for the majority of the people who have low or middle incomes.”

Responding to Farha’s report, New Zealand’s permanent representative to the UN in Geneva Lucy Duncan said the country “share[d] her view that the housing crisis facing Aotearoa New Zealand must be addressed urgently, and in a way that is enduring. This is a central priority for the New Zealand Government”.

A number of the report’s recommendations aligned with actions the Government was already taking, Duncan said. She cited the development of a government policy statement on housing and urban development, which centred on the vision that “everyone in Aotearoa lives in a healthy, secure and affordable home that meets their needs, within a thriving, inclusive and sustainable community”.

“This vision recognises that everyone has a right to an adequate home, and speaks to the broader view of housing adequacy highlighted in the Special Rapporteur’s report.”

The Government was also developing a new Māori housing strategy to “review and reset the long-term systemic changes needed to address the causes of poor and inadequate housing for Māori”, she said.

aklreels - 2021-06-27 19:12:00

aklreels wrote:

.........rathe-
r than as an asset for wealth accumulation and growth over the last decades.”

........by 2014 more than half of all new housing was aimed towards the upper market.

“In sum, in recent years, housing for the rich was built in abundance, but insufficient housing was constructed for the majority of the people who have low or middle incomes.”

.

sounds about right.
kiwis buy and sell the family home to make money which pushes up the price for FHB.
local govt is guilty of making money out of housing to.
developers pay "contributions" to council and that increases the house/land price, so in turn they focus on the higher end market to generate enough profit.

tweake - 2021-06-27 19:38:00

This message was deleted.

kiwilandchch - 2021-06-28 16:37:00

You can't borrow just up to the breaking point, far from it. Lending rates are at sub 3%, however the bank tests the servicing at 6% so there's a long way to go before real hurt kicks in.
All markets have a downturn. Fortunately for most the housing market rebounds quickly and marches on. Until the next downturn of course, but by then the net increase outweighs the next downturn. Rinse and repeat.

jeffqv - 2021-06-28 18:23:00

aklreels wrote:

"Economist Brian Easton says building more houses will not reduce house prices by much; house prices will boom until speculation based on leveraged borrowing is addressed"

LACK OF PROPERTIES FOR SALE IS PUTTING PRESSURE ON HOUSE PRICES & SPEEDING UP SALES
.

Yep. People believe want they want. Of course an economist would have that idea.
Seriously though, if there was an oversupply, investors would pick and choose.
Rates haven't made bugger all difference except to those trying to buy a home rather than a "ladder".

lythande1 - 2021-06-28 18:30:00

From interest.co

May 2016 was a pretty hot month for the housing market in this country.
A record $7.287 billion was borrowed during the month.

The record stood for some 51 months, finally getting broken as New Zealand was stirring itself from a lockdown in the midst of a pandemic.

Since that record was broken in September 2020, we've seen every month bar one break the May 2016 mark. The one month that didn't meet the old mark was January 2021. But nevertheless, the $6.36 billion advanced for mortgages this past January was very easily the biggest tally ever for this traditionally quiet month, and beat the previous record (set last year) by a whopping $1.646 billion.

With Reserve Bank figures showing that for May 2021 $8.92 billion was advanced for mortgages, this brought the total amount loaned in the first five months of this year to a spectacular $41.854 billion. It's not comparing apples with apples, but probably worth mentioning anyway that the total mortgage pile outstanding for the country as of the start of this year was about $300 billion.

The $41.854 billion figure up to May represents an average of $8.371 billion per month advanced this year to date - so, well ahead of that old monthly record of just under $7.3 billion.

A 2c cents deduction
Lots of buyers around, and decent properties will sell quickly.

aklreels - 2021-06-29 09:14:00

Evergrande was in the news, and I looked up you tube.
Here's what I found.
Chinese residential property prices had been rising for many years.
The returns were very good, and even unoccupied units could be sold for a profit in the near future.
Housing developers could not build fast enough, and sales were made before the units were completed i.e. pre-sales.
Money was available from banks and bond markets.
Chinese provincial governments sold land to developers for a sizeable gain, really a lease like for 70 years.
For years, there was talk of a housing bubble, that never burst.
Buy one, or more if you can afford it, and your family wealth will increase.

NZ housing is in this stage. People expect prices to rise. No need to keep gold or silver, just buy a house.

aklreels - 2021-10-11 12:55:00

loose.unit8 wrote:

One example : when any increase in interest rate means they can no longer afford to pay the mortgage

Why then they bleat to the government and the rent subsidy goes up. They only want "free market" on the good days.

headcat - 2021-10-11 16:18:00

headcat wrote:

Why then they bleat to the government and the rent subsidy goes up. They only want "free market" on the good days.

if only there was one. Everything tried to distort the market so far is failing. But we already knew it would.

pcle - 2021-10-11 21:46:00