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Housing In NZ

#Post
201
sparkychap wrote:

it’s also a Ponzi scheme we’ve all fallen for - getting “rich” by selling each other property for ever increasing debt, fuelled only by scarcity, FOMO and artificially low interest rates.

Yes, crazy

mkr_ahearn - 2021-04-18 10:11:00
202

The ponzi scheme is the fiat currency.
Real assets just reflect the true rate of inflation not the liars numbers put out by Government.

pcle - 2021-04-18 10:16:00
203
pcle wrote:

The ponzi scheme is the fiat currency.
Real assets just reflect the true rate of inflation not the liars numbers put out by Government.

rubbish - the value of those “real assets” is created by that same fiat currency - fractional reserve banking etc.

Edited by sparkychap at 10:21 am, Sun 18 Apr

sparkychap - 2021-04-18 10:21:00
204
pcle wrote:

The ponzi scheme is the fiat currency.
Real assets just reflect the true rate of inflation not the liars numbers put out by Government.

totally, imagine if they took house prices into their inflation calculations

That would throw the whole ‘narrative’ out wouldn’t it?

Never mind, so far the propaganda is working....

lakeview3 - 2021-04-18 10:28:00
205

This message was deleted.

kittycatkin - 2021-04-18 11:43:00
206

This message was deleted.

kittycatkin - 2021-04-18 11:51:00
207

This message was deleted.

kittycatkin - 2021-04-18 11:58:00
208
lakeview3 wrote:

totally, imagine if they took house prices into their inflation calculations

That would throw the whole ‘narrative’ out wouldn’t it?

Never mind, so far the propaganda is working....

they do - they take the cost of buying a house into consideration.

sparkychap - 2021-04-18 12:05:00
209
sparkychap wrote:

they do - they take the cost of buying a house into consideration.


I think you've mentioned before that they take the cost of servicing the mortgage and also rents into inflation figures. The cost of servicing mortgages is very low at the moment due to central banks. Perhaps the true inflation from house price rises isn't being taken into account? Houses in the 'Rapa went up 30 percent last year, which is bonkers.

apollo11 - 2021-04-18 12:12:00
210
kittycatkin wrote:

There are a few things that don't add up. She is a 'therapy assistant' and then a cook with her own bakery.

I can't see why, if they sold a large house, they didn't buy a smaller one with what was left of the money.

maybe she didn’t get an inheritance to pay off/help with her mortgage or she might have had a serious injury/illness which left her unable to work, I mean who really knows? I just feel sorry for her as life doesn’t always go as one plans, n’ est ce pas?

lakeview3 - 2021-04-18 12:14:00
211
kittycatkin wrote:

Busloads of foreigners buying whole streets of houses ??? When and where ???

Name five of the streets.

unfortunately at the time, none of the media had the guts to report it properly, but the practice is/was well known around the world and we were not exempt.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/business/65894003/wealthy-
chinese-buyers-snap-up-property

https://www.sfgate.com/business/networth/article/How-and-why
-buyers-from-China-are-snatching-up-5924991.php

“DeLeon Realty of Palo Alto also created a division to market in Asia. “We hired someone who grew up in China to promote our listings to the Chinese community,” says founder Ken DeLeon. His firm bought a 14-seat Mercedes bus to take Asian buyers on tours of Peninsula homes for sale.

It’s not unusual for foreign buyers to take a one-week home-buying trip to the Bay Area. Some purchase sight unseen. Lota De Castro, an agent with Paragon Real Estate Group in San Francisco, said she closed on a King Street studio with a buyer in Singapore who “transacted the business by e-mails and phone calls and (has) not physically seen the unit.”

lakeview3 - 2021-04-18 12:20:00
212
heather902 wrote:

How is being a Parent being in a vulnerable situation?

Being vulnerable includes all sorts of situations. I wasn't referring solely to being a parent, although being a parent with a single income and subject to the current private rental market does to place people in vulnerable positions. I was just noting your lack of empathy and apparent confidence in your own invulnerability then transferring that prejudice to others :)

upfront1 - 2021-04-18 12:24:00
213
upfront1 wrote:

Being vulnerable includes all sorts of situations. I wasn't referring solely to being a parent, although being a parent with a single income and subject to the current private rental market does to place people in vulnerable positions. I was just noting your lack of empathy and apparent confidence in your own invulnerability then transferring that prejudice to others :)

yes and being a parent means you do have responsibility not just for yourself, especially when the child is under 18.

lakeview3 - 2021-04-18 12:28:00
214
apollo11 wrote:


I think you've mentioned before that they take the cost of servicing the mortgage and also rents into inflation figures. The cost of servicing mortgages is very low at the moment due to central banks. Perhaps the true inflation from house price rises isn't being taken into account? Houses in the 'Rapa went up 30 percent last year, which is bonkers.

I agree entirely. But the cost of buying that bonkers is cheaper due to the historically low interest rates. But that’s not the point of the CPI measure.

But the bonkers housing market is no secret - the inflation in house prices is front page property porn everyday!

sparkychap - 2021-04-18 12:32:00
215
lakeview3 wrote:

unfortunately-
at the time, none of the media had the guts to report it properly,

And yet you post a link of the media reporting it at the time. Here are two more for Rotorua.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/our-view-
australian-property-investors-welcome/YUYHOA3RQD3LXNY2DRXYXC
VLGI/

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/australia
n-investors-on-shopping-spree/OP7KNPRQCH5ZSSHV7IBSYLLYUU/

It was widely reported at the time, as it was common practice with local real estate agents boasting about it to get listings. Just because you didn't see it, doesn't mean it wasn't reported.

Whenever someone makes a comment about "the media won't report it" I can guarantee they certainly did.

Edited by sparkychap at 12:47 pm, Sun 18 Apr

sparkychap - 2021-04-18 12:47:00
216
sparkychap wrote:

And yet you post a link of the media reporting it at the time. Here are two more for Rotorua.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/our-view-
australian-property-investors-welcome/YUYHOA3RQD3LXNY2DRXYXC
VLGI/

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/australia
n-investors-on-shopping-spree/OP7KNPRQCH5ZSSHV7IBSYLLYUU/

It was widely reported at the time, as it was common practice with local real estate agents boasting about it to get listings. Just because you didn't see it, doesn't mean it wasn't reported.

Whenever someone makes a comment about "the media won't report it" I can guarantee they certainly did.

thanks for that

Proves my point and no, the majority of locals didn’t welcome it, but again the media proves how they control the narrative eh.

Just like cnn admitted they did in the last few days. Go have a look for that if you can find information that hadn’t already been ‘erased’ Their next target? Climate change.

lakeview3 - 2021-04-18 12:56:00
217
upfront1 wrote:

Being vulnerable includes all sorts of situations. I wasn't referring solely to being a parent, although being a parent with a single income and subject to the current private rental market does to place people in vulnerable positions. I was just noting your lack of empathy and apparent confidence in your own invulnerability then transferring that prejudice to others :)

yep i am confident. its not a bad thing.
I'm sorry people don't all enjoy the same privilege but I'm not sorry for thinking people who bleat to media need to think a little bit more carefully when they are about to enjoy the privilege of secure lifelong social housing.
I don't have your abundance of empathy but nor do I feel a need to criticise you personally or make a personal attack. so i'm not completely horrible.

heather902 - 2021-04-18 12:56:00
218
lakeview3 wrote:

thanks for that

Proves my point and no, the majority of locals didn’t welcome it, but again the media proves how they control the narrative eh.

No it doesn't prove your point at all.

sparkychap - 2021-04-18 12:57:00
219
sparkychap wrote:

No it doesn't prove your point at all.

yes it does. I claimed busloads were being driven around and you just proved it for me, thanks!

lakeview3 - 2021-04-18 12:58:00
220
lakeview3 wrote:

yes it does. I claimed busloads were being driven around and you just proved it for me, thanks!

You said that the media didn't report it. They did. It was widely publicised. I even remember seeing it on TV news. Caused a mini house price boom in Edgecombe.

Edited by sparkychap at 1:01 pm, Sun 18 Apr

sparkychap - 2021-04-18 12:59:00
221
sparkychap wrote:

You said that the media didn't report it. They did. It was widely publicised. I even remember seeing it on TV news. Caused a mini house price book in Edgecombe.

oh sorry I must have missed that show, probably cooking dinner for the kids or something like that at the time!

lakeview3 - 2021-04-18 13:01:00
222
lakeview3 wrote:

oh sorry I must have missed that show, probably cooking dinner for the kids or something like that at the time!

Well considering you often state that you don't get the news from the mainstream media anyway, I don't really take any of your comments on what you see on the mainstream media with any seriousness.

But getting back to the point - yes you were quite correct. As was widely reported in the media at the time, there were busloads of oversea investors being toured around NZ being offered investments.

Edited by sparkychap at 1:07 pm, Sun 18 Apr

sparkychap - 2021-04-18 13:06:00
223
sparkychap wrote:

Well considering you often state that you don't get the news from the mainstream media anyway, I don't really take any of your comments on the mainstream media with any seriousness.

But getting back to the point - yes you were quite correct. As was widely reported in the media at the time, there were busloads of oversea investors being toured around NZ offering investments.

yeah I used to watch the news back then.

Now I don’t. I gave up watching that one sided BS propaganda machine a few years ago now. The news websites are almost as bad with all their stupid opinion pieces often lacking the full story.

I mean it’s called the news, why don’t they just report that for once?

I can’t even remember the last time our TV was on. Maybe a year ago?

Seriously though sparky, go look up all that stuff about cnn.....that should ring serious alarm bells for anyone with an ounce of common sense.

Edited by lakeview3 at 1:10 pm, Sun 18 Apr

lakeview3 - 2021-04-18 13:09:00
224

QED

sparkychap - 2021-04-18 13:10:00
225
upfront1 wrote:


I was just noting your lack of empathy and apparent confidence in your own invulnerability then transferring that prejudice to others :)


Dependency is the cruelest form of kindness, don't you think? Socialist policy tries to teach people that they need to rely on the State to look after them. So you end up with a society that is swift to swing out the begging bowl when life throws a curve ball.

apollo11 - 2021-04-18 13:36:00
226
apollo11 wrote:


Dependency is the cruelest form of kindness, don't you think? Socialist policy tries to teach people that they need to rely on the State to look after them. So you end up with a society that is swift to swing out the begging bowl when life throws a curve ball.

I do agree there. Shouldn’t be a life time crutch.

No harm in empowering people and lifting them up, but a permanent situation it should not be.

lakeview3 - 2021-04-18 13:39:00
227
sparkychap wrote:

Well considering you often state that you don't get the news from the mainstream media anyway, I don't really take any of your comments on what you see on the mainstream media with any seriousness.

But getting back to the point - yes you were quite correct. As was widely reported in the media at the time, there were busloads of oversea investors being toured around NZ being offered investments.


????
Not all overseas people driving around in buses were investing in houses back then, at least not in Queenstown. I know they made a lot of “investments” in the Casinos but I don’t have any figures to back up my claim, sorry, you’ll just have to believe me sans facts...

lovelurking - 2021-04-18 13:42:00
228
lovelurking wrote:


????
Not all overseas people driving around in buses were investing in houses back then, at least not in Queenstown. I know they made a lot of “investments” in the Casinos but I don’t have any figures to back up my claim, sorry, you’ll just have to believe me sans facts...

yeah lots of them were travelling as tourists in foreign owned buses, in foreign owned houses and eating at foreign owned restaurants and shopping at foreign owned shops. All right here in NZ.

I counted 18 of those white buses with trailers outside one ‘restaurant’ here once, it only ever opens for tour groups. Locals can’t eat there. (course it’s shut at the moment- funny that)

Edited by lakeview3 at 1:45 pm, Sun 18 Apr

lakeview3 - 2021-04-18 13:45:00
229
lovelurking wrote:


????
Not all overseas people driving around in buses were investing in houses back then, at least not in Queenstown. I know they made a lot of “investments” in the Casinos but I don’t have any figures to back up my claim, sorry, you’ll just have to believe me sans facts...

I believe that it wasn't reported by the biased propaganda main stream media. Maybe it was on Breitbart, though.

sparkychap - 2021-04-18 13:47:00
230

While the Government has long signalled plans around deposit protection, Thursday's release revealed that Cabinet has agreed to a new process for setting lending restrictions, such as loan-to-value ratios, moving some degree of powers from the Reserve Bank to the Beehive.

aklreels - 2021-04-22 15:06:00
231

From the internet
New Zealand has produced a surplus of homes for the first time in eight years
An annual surplus of about 13,000 homes was recorded in March

aklreels - 2021-04-24 21:28:00
232

From the internet
Property Investors Federation (NZPIF) executive officer Sharon Cullwick said there was no moral requirement for investors dealing with vulnerable tenants.

“They can choose to have a vulnerable tenant. However, they cannot get insurance if they do not have good reference, character and credit checks on them. It also needs to be mentioned that the current Government has made changes in laws such as the Residential Tenancy Act which has removed the no-cause 90-day termination notice"

Stats NZ data puts the total number of rental properties in New Zealand at 527,853. Of those 440,025 were owned by private investors.

The median asking price for a rental increased 6 percent in the year to March, new data from Trade Me shows.

"After two consecutive months of supply outweighing demand, we saw the tables turn in March, with demand once again overtaking supply and putting pressure on the market, causing rental prices to climb."

The exception is central Auckland, where growing supply has pushed the median rent down 3 percent to $560. The last time the year-on-year figure went up was May 2020. North Shore remains the super city's most expensive suburb at $635, followed by Rodney on $625 and Manukau on $600.

BTR, which involves the development of multi-unit residential buildings for long-term rentals, rather than sales to individual owners, has been touted as a way to help address the country’s housing shortage for several years.

But the sector has struggled to get off the ground in New Zealand – unlike in the UK where it has taken off over the last 10 years, or even Australia where it is growing in popularity.

An Upper Hutt pensioner is scrambling to find a way to get by after being told her rent would increase by $135 a week to keep in line with the market.

The woman, who did not want to be named, received an email from the property manager of her two-bedroom Wallaceville flat, informing her the rent would be increasing to $545 a week from mid-next month.

Stuff spoke to several other renters at flats managed by Te Aro Tenancies, who had workers barge in without warning or had problems getting maintenance done.

“I woke up to a random man walking into my room, while I was sleeping,” one renter at a flat on Manners St said.

Do we have food and shelter?

aklreels - 2021-04-29 08:19:00
233
aklreels wrote:

From the internet
New Zealand has produced a surplus of homes for the first time in eight years
An annual surplus of about 13,000 homes was recorded in March

I'm not surprised, considering net migration has effectively been as close to zero as possible for a year now.

Interesting then that prices continue to increase by record amounts.

Edited by loose.unit8 at 8:50 am, Thu 29 Apr

loose.unit8 - 2021-04-29 08:49:00
234
loose.unit8 wrote:

I'm not surprised, considering net migration has effectively been as close to zero as possible for a year now.

Interesting then that prices continue to increase by record amounts.

how close is 44.000 to zero?

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-net-migration-down-in-
2020

sparkychap - 2021-04-29 09:17:00
235
sparkychap wrote:

how close is 44.000 to zero?

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-net-migration-down-in-
2020

A lot further away from zero than the actual figure for the last 12 months.

"In the eight months from April 2020 to November 2020, net migration was provisionally estimated at 5,100."

That's not per month, that's in total.

And there is no reason to think it's changed much between November and now - i.e. the one year I quoted - so is likely to be under 10,000.

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-net-migration-slows

Edited by loose.unit8 at 9:34 am, Thu 29 Apr

loose.unit8 - 2021-04-29 09:29:00
236

From the internet

Borrowing for mortgages leaped again in March to cross the $10 billion mark for the first time, new Reserve Bank lending data reveals.

The $10.4 billion borrowed in the month was the highest amount since the Reserve Bank started recording the data in August 2014 and was the latest in a series of record figures set in the last months of last year.

Of that borrowing, $2.3b went to investors and $1.7b went to first-home buyers. Existing owner-occupiers accounted for $6.2b.

aklreels - 2021-05-01 07:47:00
237

The actual number of investor borrowers jumped more than a thousand or from the previous month. Up nearly 30% though similar % as previous month due to the big overall increase in borrowers.

Suspect investors making moves before the signalled LVR changes kick in. And many lucky enough to avoid the punitive 100% interest non-deduction that kicked in last few days in March. Predict investor numbers and amounts will drop sharply for a time.

artemis - 2021-05-01 08:06:00
238
artemis wrote:

The actual number of investor borrowers jumped more than a thousand or from the previous month. Up nearly 30% though similar % as previous month due to the big overall increase in borrowers.

Suspect investors making moves before the signalled LVR changes kick in. And many lucky enough to avoid the punitive 100% interest non-deduction that kicked in last few days in March. Predict investor numbers and amounts will drop sharply for a time.

Worth noting, however that by early February all five main banks had already implemented stricter LVR for investors. ANZ moved last December. So those were already in effect for the March data,

sparkychap - 2021-05-01 08:40:00
239
sparkychap wrote:

Worth noting, however that by early February all five main banks had already implemented stricter LVR for investors. ANZ moved last December. So those were already in effect for the March data,

True but settlements are seldom instantaneous.

artemis - 2021-05-01 09:07:00
240
artemis wrote:

True but settlements are seldom instantaneous.

True, but the actual implementation of the LVR rules by the RBNZ has little to do with it. The market has already been pricing it in with banks implementing their rules with immediate effect earlier.

sparkychap - 2021-05-01 09:15:00
241

From the internet
Stats NZ said today 41,028 new homes were consented in the year to March 2021, eclipsing the February 1974 year's previous record of 40,225.

Westpac economist
"That means that the shortages that have built up in recent years are rapidly being eroded. And even when the borders do reopen, we don't expect population growth will return to the levels we saw prior to the Covid outbreak, with the Government now reviewing migration settings," Ranchhod said today.

New data has found a reduction in demand in nationwide housing valuations which could be the first signs of the housing market slowing.

CoreLogic House Price Index tracks property value change and its latest report has found a reduction in demand of valuations, down 11 percent compared to the previous 6 months.

According to Trade Me Property, new listings to market remained relatively steady throughout April, about 3000 new listings per week, until ANZAC weekend (1800).

The total number of properties listed for sale on Trade Me Property dropped to 22,300 by the end of the month, from 23,100 at the beginning of the month.

This meant buyers would continue to compete for a relatively small pool of advertised properties, he said.

aklreels - 2021-05-08 15:07:00
242

Actual homes are more important than consents. Can't live in a consent, and by no means all consents result in a home. Maybe there is somewhere that reports number of actual homes delivered.

artemis - 2021-05-08 16:19:00
243

Also with the amount of higher density redevelopment going on, for each consent a dwelling may be removed, so the number of new homes consented also needs to be balanced with the removals.

sparkychap - 2021-05-08 17:28:00
244

News Headlines

House prices increased 21% in the last year, despite action to slow growth.
Housing crisis: Average NZ house price now above $900,000, no sign of slowing down - QV
Not enough houses to meet soaring demand, Realestate.co.nz says

Meantime, RBNZ is keeping an eye on this.

In its six-monthly financial stability report, the central bank said it may need to take further action to cool the market.

Another worry for the bank was if a 'sharp correction' occurred, potentially causing prices to dramatically fall 10-20 percent at once.

Don't know how this will play out, its wait and see.

aklreels - 2021-05-11 08:29:00
245
aklreels wrote:

News Headlines

House prices increased 21% in the last year, despite action to slow growth.
Housing crisis: Average NZ house price now above $900,000, no sign of slowing down - QV
Not enough houses to meet soaring demand, Realestate.co.nz says

Meantime, RBNZ is keeping an eye on this.

In its six-monthly financial stability report, the central bank said it may need to take further action to cool the market.

Another worry for the bank was if a 'sharp correction' occurred, potentially causing prices to dramatically fall 10-20 percent at once.

Don't know how this will play out, its wait and see.

Really!
You have no idea how this may pan out!

Let's see.

If it drops 10%, a lot of FHB will be stretched to the limit and have to sell up up due to liquidity.
If it drops 20%, nearly all FHB will have hit the wall and also a few investors.

Myself, nah. Only have 25% loading on our investments.
Could be time for a few more.

Will it happen, nah.

smallwoods - 2021-05-11 08:41:00
246
smallwoods wrote:

Really!
You have no idea how this may pan out!

Let's see.

If it drops 10%, a lot of FHB will be stretched to the limit and have to sell up up due to liquidity.
If it drops 20%, nearly all FHB will have hit the wall and also a few investors.

Myself, nah. Only have 25% loading on our investments.
Could be time for a few more.

Will it happen, nah.

No this isn't right. Price falls makes no difference to "liquidity" as long as the borrower can still afford the mortgage payments. With the 20% LVRs and double digit annual price rises we've seen, very few FHBer will be plunged into negative equity, and even if they are, as long as they can still pay the mortgage, the banks will continue to let them.

Rising interest rates are far more of a concern although banks have been stress testing to 7% in recent years, and its estimated that we're many, many years away from getting back to those levels.

Edited by sparkychap at 8:49 am, Tue 11 May

sparkychap - 2021-05-11 08:45:00
247

My offspring is trying to buy a first home. What an absolute mess the housing market is for first home buyers. We are helping her considerably but if you are single, have a student loan, employed by the public service (good bye any pay increments!) then it is an increasingly uphill battle.

geoone - 2021-05-11 10:39:00
248
sparkychap wrote:

No this isn't right. Price falls makes no difference to "liquidity" as long as the borrower can still afford the mortgage payments. With the 20% LVRs and double digit annual price rises we've seen, very few FHBer will be plunged into negative equity, and even if they are, as long as they can still pay the mortgage, the banks will continue to let them.

Rising interest rates are far more of a concern although banks have been stress testing to 7% in recent years, and its estimated that we're many, many years away from getting back to those levels.

The banks won't hang around for long at 95%+ equity, even less at 105%

And I meant equity, not liquidity.

Edited by smallwoods at 12:46 pm, Tue 11 May

smallwoods - 2021-05-11 12:45:00
249
smallwoods wrote:

The banks won't hang around for long at 95%+ equity, even less at 105%

And I meant equity, not liquidity.

What do you mean?

sparkychap - 2021-05-11 12:47:00
250

I would think that the banks are terrified of crashing the housing market, and would hold off selling houses from under people (with negative equity) as a very last resort.

apollo11 - 2021-05-11 13:36:00
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