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A message from the Governor of the Reserve Bank

#Post
1

“Most market observers, the Reserve Bank included, agree that the upswing has now peaked and that demand is gradually beginning to cool. The Reserve Bank has been giving a consistent message to households and investors over the last year. Prudent buyers and investors need to satisfy themselves that they could withstand a reasonably significant fall in house prices and rentals and/or a reasonably significant rise in interest rates.“

sparkychap - 2021-06-25 20:24:00
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There isn't much for available in our corner of the woods, the agents are getting really desperate for stock. Houses and subdivisions are going up all over the place, so hopefully things start to cool off soon.

apollo11 - 2021-06-25 20:46:00
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Well if the fed raises interest rates at the end of the year,,, the rest of the world will follow , luckily they can’t afford to put them up by much, as they (US government can’t afford it) with all the money they borrowed ???? and if they do raise them, they just keep on printing a few more trillions of $$$$ to pay the bills ( inflation here we come )

argentum47 - 2021-06-25 21:11:00
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apollo11 wrote:

There isn't much for available in our corner of the woods, the agents are getting really desperate for stock. Houses and subdivisions are going up all over the place, so hopefully things start to cool off soon.

Shortage of for-sale stock is almost everywhere the media reports. Possibly with a few exceptions such as the Auckland apartment market.

But why? Aren't investors supposed to be selling up in droves? Are they waiting for the 5/10 year bright line periods to expire? Or just waiting?

artemis - 2021-06-26 08:44:00
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artemis wrote:

Shortage of for-sale stock is almost everywhere the media reports. Possibly with a few exceptions such as the Auckland apartment market.

But why? Aren't investors supposed to be selling up in droves? Are they waiting for the 5/10 year bright line periods to expire? Or just waiting?

Maybe, just maybe, they never were selling up in droves as threatened by the landlords federations? Maybe, just maybe, there were still plenty of investors buying properties that were sold off?

If landlords are holding because of government policy then maybe, just maybe it’s done what’s needed to take the heat out of the market. After all active bonds hit an all time high in April.

sparkychap - 2021-06-26 09:26:00
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Perhaps if banks stopped diluting fiat currencies, people would be less inclined to squirrel their savings in inflation-resistant assets like real estate?

apollo11 - 2021-06-26 10:11:00
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artemis wrote:

Shortage of for-sale stock is almost everywhere the media reports. Possibly with a few exceptions such as the Auckland apartment market.

But why? Aren't investors supposed to be selling up in droves? Are they waiting for the 5/10 year bright line periods to expire? Or just waiting?

Yes the brightline tax has taken a lot of houses out of the market.

3tomany - 2021-06-26 10:43:00
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Why would you sell a golden goose?

funkydunky - 2021-06-26 17:08:00
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No one believes a word of anything that comes from the reserve bank anymore. Used to be a respected institution, not any more.

Sold out on young New Zealanders futures as far as I am concerned.

lakeview3 - 2021-06-26 17:39:00
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lakeview3 wrote:

No one believes a word of anything that comes from the reserve bank anymore. Used to be a respected institution, not any more.

Sold out on young New Zealanders futures as far as I am concerned.

When do you think it was respected?

sparkychap - 2021-06-26 17:59:00
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sparkychap wrote:

When do you think it was respected?

good question, maybe I was just deluded…. ????

lakeview3 - 2021-06-26 18:07:00
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lakeview3 wrote:

good question, maybe I was just deluded…. ????

The post was a trick really. The quote was from Alan Bollard in a speech on September 2, 2004.

I picked it up from an excellent piece by Bernard Hickey, which I think you'd appreciate.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/25-06-2021/bernard-hickey-
how-hope-for-a-generation-was-lost/

sparkychap - 2021-06-26 18:12:00
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sparkychap wrote:

The post was a trick really. The quote was from Alan Bollard in a speech on September 2, 2004.

I picked it up from an excellent piece by Bernard Hickey, which I think you'd appreciate.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/25-06-2021/bernard-hickey-
how-hope-for-a-generation-was-lost/


Only one way to fix it, keep the population static while we try to build more houses.

apollo11 - 2021-06-26 19:44:00
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apollo11 wrote:


Only one way to fix it, keep the population static while we try to build more houses.

But if we're all standing still who is going to build the houses?

sparkychap - 2021-06-26 19:52:00
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sparkychap wrote:

The post was a trick really. The quote was from Alan Bollard in a speech on September 2, 2004.

I picked it up from an excellent piece by Bernard Hickey, which I think you'd appreciate.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/25-06-2021/bernard-hickey-
how-hope-for-a-generation-was-lost/

yes thanks sparky I read that yesterday, was going to do a thread about it but I worked much of today and I ran out of energy to start a new thread.

Sad reading really, hard to disagree. Bernard pretty much sums it up for me and I think he’s just a few years older than me so can really relate to his timeline and thoughts.

lakeview3 - 2021-06-26 19:54:00
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sparkychap wrote:

But if we're all standing still who is going to build the houses?


The magic 3D printers, of course.

apollo11 - 2021-06-26 20:03:00
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3tomany wrote:

Yes the brightline tax has taken a lot of houses out of the market.

How?
It only applies after the time it came into effect.
So we have 2 properties not affected at all and another on the 5 year bright line test, as bought last December.
Interest rates can 400% and it won't worry us.

smallwoods - 2021-06-26 20:41:00
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