TM Forums
Back to search

Housing In NZ

#Post
1

From the internet
"Economist Brian Easton says building more houses will not reduce house prices by much; house prices will boom until speculation based on leveraged borrowing is addressed"

LACK OF PROPERTIES FOR SALE IS PUTTING PRESSURE ON HOUSE PRICES & SPEEDING UP SALES
As the total pool of properties available for sale in New Zealand falls to record lows, this is continuing to put pressure on house prices, with the country seeing a new record median house price for the fourth month in a row according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), source of the most complete and accurate real estate data in New Zealand.

Reserve Bank to reimpose LVRs for first home buyers, property investors from 1 March
Lending to property investors would be limited to no more than 5 percent with less than a 30 percent deposit, which would rise to 40 percent from May.

RBNZ deputy governor Geoff Bascand said there was evidence of speculation and growth in heavily indebted people, which would threaten financial stability if there was a sharp housing downturn.

The LVRs were suspended at the start of the pandemic to ease the pressure on banks.

"Since then, in part due to the success of the health and economic policy responses, we have witnessed a rapid acceleration in the housing market, with new records being set for the national median price, and new mortgage lending continuing at a strong pace," Bascand said.

"We are now concerned about the risk a sharp correction in the housing market poses for financial stability. There is evidence of a speculative dynamic emerging with many buyers becoming highly leveraged."

Off-site building manufacturer Concision and house building company Versatile Pukekohe have announced they recently built a four bedroom, two bathroom house, in just 10 weeks from start to finish.

The house was built from 43 prefabricated panels manufactured in Concision’s Rolleston factory over two days. They were then delivered to the Franklin site and installed in a single day.

aklreels - 2021-02-16 08:21:00
2
aklreels wrote:


Off-site building manufacturer Concision and house building company Versatile Pukekohe have announced they recently built a four bedroom, two bathroom house, in just 10 weeks from start to finish.


I can build a house in 10 weeks, better than anything I have seen from Versatile. But if it takes a year to struggle through the consenting process and everything has to be custom designed for the ever-changing planning rules then this article completely misses the point.

masturbidder - 2021-02-16 09:00:00
3
aklreels wrote:


"We are now concerned about the risk a sharp correction in the housing market poses for financial stability. There is evidence of a speculative dynamic emerging with many buyers becoming highly leveraged."

If people have been stupid enough to borrow money up to just before breaking point, that's their fault. And anyone who thinks the housing market doesn't go down sometimes is extremely naïve.

Edited by loose.unit8 at 9:08 am, Tue 16 Feb

loose.unit8 - 2021-02-16 09:08:00
4
loose.unit8 wrote:

If people have been stupid enough to borrow money up to just before breaking point, that's their fault.

When is "breaking point"?

keys - 2021-02-16 09:11:00
5
keys wrote:

When is "breaking point"?

One example : when any increase in interest rate means they can no longer afford to pay the mortgage

loose.unit8 - 2021-02-16 09:23:00
6
loose.unit8 wrote:


One example : when any increase in interest rate means they can no longer afford to pay the mortgage

What if they passed the lender's stress test?

artemis - 2021-02-16 09:40:00
7

Read a Historic Places Trust pamphlet on State houses. Government leased 2 joinery factories to Fletcher Construction and internal fittings were built, with both factories operating 24 hours. There was a pool of labour as the Depression had caused many unemployed workers.
Like Railway houses, factory production would make houses quicker but are there qualified trades-people and is the market agreeable?

amasser - 2021-02-16 10:24:00
8
keys wrote:

When is "breaking point"?

snap

jethrocat - 2021-02-16 16:52:00
9

Still no action from the government.....

Edited by lakeview3 at 5:06 pm, Tue 16 Feb

lakeview3 - 2021-02-16 17:06:00
10
lakeview3 wrote:

Still no action from the government.....

Mmmm

3tomany - 2021-02-16 17:10:00
11
artemis wrote:

What if they passed the lender's stress test?

Probably lied on their application about their actual outgoings.

sparkychap - 2021-02-16 17:36:00
12
lakeview3 wrote:

Still no action from the government.....


In another nonsense thread. You predicted house prices were going to fall by 40%. Got an update to when?

orphic1 - 2021-02-16 19:55:00
13
orphic1 wrote:


In another nonsense thread. You predicted house prices were going to fall by 40%. Got an update to when?

.

Edited by lakeview3 at 8:17 pm, Tue 16 Feb

lakeview3 - 2021-02-16 20:08:00
14

Despite new properties being exempt from new lending restrictions, ASB Bank has stopped providing new build loans to investors above 60% LVR.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518158/asb-shut-dow
n-new-build-investor-loan.html

Unintended consequences? Oh dear. Prices/rents going up some more.

pcle - 2021-02-17 13:09:00
15
keys wrote:

When is "breaking point"?

Title was " Point break " 2015 movie or break point the book by Matthew Ollerton

smallwoods - 2021-02-17 17:36:00
16

From the internet
First home buyers' share of the housing market dropped to 22% in January, investors' share rose to 41%

On Wednesday, mortgage brokers told NZ Herald that unless investors had at least 40 percent equity, ASB was declining home loan applications for new builds.
But late on Wednesday afternoon, the bank confirmed it had revoked that decision, explaining it was trying to strike a balance between managing demand and encouraging housing supply.
"We have made a move today to enable lending of greater than 60 percent LVR for new build investment properties, under the RBNZ exemption criteria."

Oh....investors will be able to buy new builds....the owner occupiers can buy the older houses.....

aklreels - 2021-02-18 06:06:00
17
lakeview3 wrote:

Still no action from the government.....

what action should, in your opinion, the government take ??

onl_148 - 2021-02-18 11:30:00
18
onl_148 wrote:

what action should, in your opinion, the government take ??

release more land, first home buyer subdivisions only with basic box houses funded by taxes gained from taxing people with multiple houses (more than 2). Empty homes tax.

Keep immigration down to essential skiiled workers only.

lakeview3 - 2021-02-18 19:38:00
19
aklreels wrote:

Off-site building manufacturer Concision and house building company Versatile Pukekohe have announced they recently built a four bedroom, two bathroom house, in just 10 weeks from start to finish.

The house was built from 43 prefabricated panels manufactured in Concision’s Rolleston factory over two days. They were then delivered to the Franklin site and installed in a single day.

I asked Versatile about this building. They said the build cost was more than a standard house, but faster. I would expect a shorter build time probably saves some money in other ways, but not sure what the net difference would be in cost between their prefab and a standard build once speed and cost were both accounted for.

luteba - 2021-02-18 21:35:00
20
orphic1 wrote:


In another nonsense thread. You predicted house prices were going to fall by 40%. Got an update to when?

That's the joke of the century - crash in the property market

catwoman1974 - 2021-02-19 01:58:00
21
lakeview3 wrote:

release more land, first home buyer subdivisions only with basic box houses funded by taxes gained from taxing people with multiple houses (more than 2). Empty homes tax.
Keep immigration down to essential skiiled workers only.


More tax for the tenants to pay. Nice.
How are all those extra taxes working out so far?

pcle - 2021-02-19 07:55:00
22
lakeview3 wrote:

release more land, first home buyer subdivisions only with basic box houses funded by taxes gained from taxing people with multiple houses (more than 2). Empty homes tax.

Keep immigration down to essential skiiled workers only.


You really have way too much faith in Government. It would cost more to administer your new taxes than any amount of money they would bring in. You'd really need to bring in hundreds of millions of dollars, any idea of how many people own more than two properties? At what point is a house empty? If it's lived in one day a week, does it count as occupied? If it's undergoing renovations, how long are the renovations allowed to take before it's declared empty? Completely unworkable.

apollo11 - 2021-02-19 08:39:00
23

Was there a "housing crisis" before National increased taxes on rental properties?
How much worse has it gotten since Labour increased taxes even more?
Perhaps going back might be more helpful?

pcle - 2021-02-19 09:12:00
24
lakeview3 wrote:

release more land, first home buyer subdivisions only with basic box houses funded by taxes gained from taxing people with multiple houses (more than 2). Empty homes tax.

Keep immigration down to essential skiiled workers only.


Perhaps I should of re-worded my question to include the word "practical" !
If I was to be taxed because I own say 3 houses, what would I be taxed on
a) the total market value of all three combined
b) the total market value of the 2 that I live in the least
c) the market value of the one used the least / the most.
How empty does a house have to be before it qualifies as empty for tax purposes ??
I'm a bit confused by a "first home buyer subdivision" paid for by the government.... if the sub division is paid for by the government, what are the the first home BUYERS buying ?? Do you mean the government would spend say $400,000 on a plot of land & house and then on sell it to a 1st home buyer for say $300,000.

The one up side of the above proposed housing problem solution would be it will create jobs.. a make work scheme for lawyers & accountants etc who will, for a fee, help you to arrange your affairs so that you will be exempt from the 3+ house or empty house tax !!

I'm all for the government release land for el-cheapo housing developments, but of course there would be no suitable land near my house,,, perhaps in a different suburb or even city !!

onl_148 - 2021-02-19 09:53:00
25

"Nappy Valley"

sparkychap - 2021-02-19 10:02:00
26

We can fix ANYTHING with moar Socialism lol.. If you have to use the word 'government' in your plans to fix housing issues, you've already failed.

apollo11 - 2021-02-19 11:25:00
27
apollo11 wrote:

We can fix ANYTHING with moar Socialism lol.. If you have to use the word 'government' in your plans to fix housing issues, you've already failed.

Never a truer word spoken.... the closest the government should get to it is to write a few cheques, if required, and tweak a few laws / regulation.

onl_148 - 2021-02-19 11:57:00
28

If you are looking at stabilizing house prices...there's no point increasing house supply if you still allow foreign buyers. There is not enough land in NZ to satisfy global demand. Too many governments have focused on Supply, without putting any control measures on Demand. There's 2 sides to price, supply and demand, but governments only think there is one side: supply.

mone - 2021-02-22 20:31:00
29
mone wrote:

If you are looking at stabilizing house prices...there's no point increasing house supply if you still allow foreign buyers. There is not enough land in NZ to satisfy global demand. Too many governments have focused on Supply, without putting any control measures on Demand. There's 2 sides to price, supply and demand, but governments only think there is one side: supply.

they did that in August 2018.

Edited by sparkychap at 9:10 pm, Mon 22 Feb

sparkychap - 2021-02-22 21:09:00
30

Most of the "grand plans" to do something about the housing problem are based on putting restrictions / limits on buyers... perhaps another approach would be to put some restrictions etc on sellers. Sell to an foreigner / investor all the capital gains are taxable. Sell to a first home buyer, get your legal fees and / or real estate commission refunded.
To free up land to build new houses we need to make it easier... if the reason a land owner does not sub divide is because the city council are making it all too hard to do or too expensive... then that is a problem which needs fixing... perhaps there should be no consent fees etc... the council does not incurr any extra costs just because they are processing a consent application... the little council man with the clipboard still gets his salary no matter if he is working on a consent or just sitting at his desk !!
Perhaps we have to inject a little "communism / state control" into new home building... take some or all of the profit out of it.. the builder buys the material from the government / central authority and on charges them at cost... makes his money on charging for his time only.. A figure I would be interested to find out would be "what is the profit margin in house building"? If you say go to one of the big house / land companies and sign up for a modest house and land package, at the end of the day how much of the purchase price is profit? Are we looking at 5% or 45% ??

onl_148 - 2021-02-23 10:38:00
31
onl_148 wrote:

Most of the "grand plans" to do something about the housing problem are based on putting restrictions / limits on buyers... perhaps another approach would be to put some restrictions etc on sellers. Sell to an foreigner / investor all the capital gains are taxable. Sell to a first home buyer, get your legal fees and / or real estate commission refunded.
To free up land to build new houses we need to make it easier... if the reason a land owner does not sub divide is because the city council are making it all too hard to do or too expensive... then that is a problem which needs fixing... perhaps there should be no consent fees etc... the council does not incurr any extra costs just because they are processing a consent application... the little council man with the clipboard still gets his salary no matter if he is working on a consent or just sitting at his desk !!
Perhaps we have to inject a little "communism / state control" into new home building... take some or all of the profit out of it.. the builder buys the material from the government / central authority and on charges them at cost... makes his money on charging for his time only.. A figure I would be interested to find out would be "what is the profit margin in house building"? If you say go to one of the big house / land companies and sign up for a modest house and land package, at the end of the day how much of the purchase price is profit? Are we looking at 5% or 45% ??

Yeah more taxes and more bureaucracy. Such a great idea. How's that working so far?

pcle - 2021-02-24 07:55:00
32
pcle wrote:

Yeah more taxes and more bureaucracy. Such a great idea. How's that working so far?

Quite so. Suspect folk have forgotten the 'brain drain' of net migration, when many skilled New Zealanders headed over the ditch and further afield. Like just a few years ago. In exchange thousands of overseas students came here and did their permitted 20 hours a week of work (yeah right) in low wage jobs. It can and will happen again.

Meantime I don't suppose France has forgotten the crackdown on wealthy citizens who said no thanks and moved countries. Because they could. That law didn't last long. New Zealand could take note.

artemis - 2021-02-24 08:34:00
33
apollo11 wrote:

We can fix ANYTHING with moar Socialism lol.. If you have to use the word 'government' in your plans to fix housing issues, you've already failed.

Yes, the market is so much better at solving crises.

committed - 2021-02-24 08:39:00
34
committed wrote:


Yes, the market is so much better at solving crises.


Failure. Go bust. Dead & buried. There - all fixed.
But too big to fail put a stop to that.

pcle - 2021-02-24 08:55:00
35

Kiwibuild - 12 families helped into a house.
Transformational!

pcle - 2021-02-24 11:28:00
36
pcle wrote:

Kiwibuild - 12 families helped into a house.
Transformational!

Not Kiwibuild. A shared equity scheme announced with fanfare.

artemis - 2021-02-24 13:22:00
37

News from the internet

Finance Minister Grant Robertson has decided to change the remit of the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee, requiring it to assess the effect of its actions on the Government’s housing policy.

“The Committee retains autonomy over whether and how its decisions take account of potential housing consequences, but it will need to explain regularly how it has sought to assess the impacts on housing outcomes,” Robertson said.

In the exact words of the remit, in pursuing its inflation and employment targets, the Monetary Policy Committee has to “assess the effect of its monetary policy decisions on the Government’s policy”.

The remit stipulates the "Government's policy" is to "support more sustainable house prices, including by dampening investor demand for existing housing stock, which would improve affordability for first-home buyers”.

The new remit will take effect on March 1.

Government vs Housing Market
My eyes see a starving goose that lays the golden eggs

aklreels - 2021-02-25 10:45:00
38
pcle wrote:

Was there a "housing crisis" before National increased taxes on rental properties?
How much worse has it gotten since Labour increased taxes even more?
Perhaps going back might be more helpful?


Can you explain to me how it's possible to increase tax on just one item - rental property - under the exiting NZ tax system?

supernova2 - 2021-02-25 11:11:00
39

Also time for Minister Robertson to assess the impact his own government's housing policies continue to have on the stated policy outcomes.

artemis - 2021-02-25 11:12:00
40
supernova2 wrote:


Can you explain to me how it's possible to increase tax on just one item - rental property - under the exiting NZ tax system?

? Ring fence losses. Remove depreciation. Special business laws that apply only to residential rentals. Increased compliance costs. Have you missed all that?

pcle - 2021-02-25 12:50:00
41

The new builds in Forrest Hill/Sunnynook.
Five buildings on a section 1,000 sq m. Single long metal roof with weatherboard cladding. Appears to be a cost efficient design.
In the news, "intensified" housing.

Owner converts a double garage to a single bed home, in Auckland for $200,000.

Bank won't lend with a 20% deposit for a apartment less than 45 sq m.

“My pick is that we will see the FOMO in the market ease off a bit after the March quarter, although a lot depends on what the Government announces in this regard and the response to that,” Alexander said.

“But if I am wrong about FOMO starting to ease from March and the market shows continued exuberance, I wouldn’t rule out the introduction of a 50 per cent LVR in the second half of the year.”

In the year ended January 2021, the actual number of new dwellings consented was 39,881, up 5.8 percent from the January 2020 year.

Edited by aklreels at 8:40 pm, Thu 11 Mar

aklreels - 2021-03-11 20:40:00
42

25% of all the currency in the world was created in the last year.
Wonder why prices have gone up? Good thing that debasing currency never ends badly....

pcle - 2021-03-12 08:10:00
43
lakeview3 wrote:

release more land, first home buyer subdivisions only with basic box houses funded by taxes gained from taxing people with multiple houses (more than 2). Empty homes tax.

Keep immigration down to essential skiiled workers only.


agree to a point =need to get back to building basic houses in bulk BUT not funded by government.
years ago we had NZ companies building large subdivisions of box houses
most of the people involved were employess not contractors, and they all
kinds of apprentices, they sometimes even did the infastructure like drainage for the subdivision.
too many fingers in the pie now.councils are holding back land, an=d making consents take longer than it should be,too many small companies
not training apprentices,overseas workers and overseas products used
and the population has grown too fast all in the name of money
demand for ousing has propped up our economy for too ;long
if councils can keep prices high more rates so not in their interest to get
prices down, weather an owner or a landlord pays the rates they still get paid. I worry that about what will happen when todays renters etc retire
not in any governments or councils interest =to fix the issue

catbrat - 2021-03-12 11:52:00
44

"not in any governments or councils interest =to fix the issue"
Can the Government build houses well at a resonable price? No, look at KiwiBuild.
Can the Councils help, unlikely, the relevant laws were passed by Parliament.
Councils did redesignate residential land to higher density.

aklreels - 2021-03-12 15:50:00
45

This message was deleted.

kittycatkin - 2021-03-12 16:10:00
46

This message was deleted.

kittycatkin - 2021-03-12 16:15:00
47

IMF had some good things to say about NZ economy, on housing

Additionally, the report noted the surging housing market could trigger a "pronounced correction", which needed to be tackled with specific measures to dampen speculative demand and unlock supply.

"Mitigating near-term housing demand, particularly from investors, would help moderate price pressures," it said.

"Introduction of stamp duties or an expansion of capital gains taxation could reduce the attractiveness of residential property investment."

aklreels - 2021-03-12 17:42:00
48
aklreels wrote:

IMF had some good things to say about NZ economy, on housing
"

I wonder if you should revisit your definition of "good"....

sparkychap - 2021-03-12 17:48:00
49
kittycatkin wrote:

Would you want them to force the value of your house down ?


1 month, no response, must have gone to ground, or you called poster out, again

Edited by orphic1 at 6:19 pm, Fri 12 Mar

orphic1 - 2021-03-12 18:16:00
50
pcle wrote:

25% of all the currency in the world was created in the last year.
Wonder why prices have gone up? Good thing that debasing currency never ends badly....

if money printing was an Olympic sport, no doubt Princess Toothy would be in the running for a Gold Medal!

Jokes aside, current increases aren't good for NZ.

I feel so sorry for FHB's in the current market, but the ten year bonds rates are indicating caution to anyone jumping in.

I actually bought with early inheritance between the first and second lockdown. The house I bought is already out of my budget for what I'm willing to pay. I had being looking for over a year, but with Covid19 I was allowed to work from home, I instantly expanded my search and snapped up a nice 3 bedroom with 750 square meters section on the outskirts of Auckland near a new commercial center. I attended a weekend open home of failed Auction in June, 3 days later I had exclusive conditional offer and never looked back. At the time, a few properties (proper houses on full sections) still had asking price which were excellent FHB buys. The house I bought had investor interest (I sore them at the open home) and hence I felt the need to act fast and not let it go to multi offer and lose out.

Edited by ian1990 at 7:29 pm, Fri 12 Mar

ian1990 - 2021-03-12 19:28:00
Free Web Hosting